Pest forecasting models

Pest forecasting models

Over the years, funding from AHDB Horticulture has made it possible to produce models that can be used to help predict the arrival of pests and in turn enable growers to manage and control outbreaks when they occur. Originally these models were known as MORPH models, however the software they were produced on is now obsolete.


AHDB has recently funded the extraction of the equations from these models meaning four of the MORPH pest models (cabbage root fly, carrot fly, pollen beetle, large narcissus fly) and three day-degree models (lettuce-root aphid, willow-carrot aphid, currant-lettuce aphid) can now be accessed using a spreadsheet-based tool in EXCEL.


Whilst these adapted models are simpler versions of the MORPH models, validations of these initial versions confirm that the approach, using these new spreadsheets is valid.  For further information on CP 127 - Compendium of pest forecasting models, click here.


There are models for:

Cabbage root fly, Carrot Fy, Pollen beetle, Large Narcissus fly, Day-degree models for aphids, Early emerging flies, Overwinter as pupae, Late- emerging flies and Overwinter as larvae. The models are currently supported by the University of Warwick and you can access them here:


  • Pest Compendium (please note you will be taken to the University of Warwick website)


You will also find guidance at the link above on how to use and run the models.